小学生预见性偏差及其削弱

The Foresight Bias and Its Reduction of Primary School Students

采用基于理论、反馈、经验三种去偏差方法,对不同年级儿童预见性偏差的削弱进行探讨。实验结果发现,二年级和三年级出现了预见性偏差,五年级没有出现预见性偏差。只有基于理论的去偏差方法能削弱二年级儿童的预见性偏差;三种方法均能削弱三年级儿童的预见性偏差。结果说明帮助儿童建立正确的元认知理论可以有效提高其元认知监测水平,三年级儿童在克服预见性偏差的过程中比二年级学生更敏感。

Foresight bias is defined in this study as the Judgment of Learning(JoL)made by participants which is higher than the correct recall that retrieved by participants.Judgment of Learning is an important form of meta-cognitive monitoring.It refers to a predictive judgment of whether the items that have been learned can be recalled in subsequent tests.Previous studies have found foresight bias in both adults and children.Compared to forward associated pairs,backward associated pairs(e.g.rain-umbrella)are more likely to produce higher Judgment of Learning.Therefore,researchers begin to explore how to reduce this bias.However,most previous studies have focused primarily on the reduction of adult bias,little is known about the impact of de-biasing methods on children.The present study tries to examine which ages are more likely to produce higher foresight bias with students of grade 2,grade 3 and grade 5 in primary schools,as well as to explore which de-biasing method can reduce the bias with theorybased,mnemonic-based and feedback methods.A 3(de-biasing methods:theory–based,mnemonic-based,feedback)×3(ages:grade 2,grade 3,grade5)between-subjects design was employed in the current study.In the experiment,a total of 180 participants learned a list of 18 pairs of backward associated words.When each pair of word was finished,participants needed to judge the probability with a rate of 0-10 as to whether he/she could recall the word on the right in five seconds if the words on the left were presented.After all the word pairs were finished,participants did an interference task in 1 minute,and then started to recall the word on the right with the presentation of the word on the left one by one.Each word was given 20 seconds.After the first"Learn-Test"was finished,the researcher used different methods to de-bias participants’foresight bias.In the theory-based group,the researcher explained the foresight bias to participants.First,the researcher explained the correct recall of items and their predicted probabilities.Second,the participants were asked to learn 4 new pairs of words and to do the judgment.After that,they were told about the real probability they recalled after each word pair.After completion of all 4 word pairs,the researcher explained the foresight bias and the potential factors to the participants.In the feedback group,the researcher just told participants the correct recall and their predicted probability.In the mnemonic-based group,the researcher did not provide any information to the participants and started the second"Learn-Test"just like the first test.The results showed that foresight bias occurred with students of grade 2 and 3,whereas students of grade 5 did not show the foresight bias.For children of grade 2,only theory-based de-biasing procedures reduced their foresight bias;for children of grade 3,all three procedures had the same effect for alleviating their foresight bias.In summary,the results show that the memory monitoring ability of children is developing,and the ability of students of grade 2 and grade 3 is worse than those of grade 5.Helping children establish correct meta-cognitive theory can effectively improve their meta-cognitive monitoring level.Furthermore,students of grader 3 are more sensitive than those of grader 2 in overcoming the predictive bias.