高铁开通推动地区人力资本提升了吗？——基于双重差分模型的实证检验

Does High-Speed Rail Promote Regional Human Capital?——An Empirical Test based on Difference in Differences Model

中国经济正处于高速增长向高质量发展转换的重要攻关期,提升人力资本是推动质量变革的关键。本文借助高铁开通这一外生冲击构造准自然试验,采用2003-2017年中国285个地级及以上城市的平衡面板数据,运用双重差分模型和中介效应模型准确地考察高铁开通对地区人力资本的影响效应及作用机制。并在此基础上,进一步探究高铁开通对地区人力资本的异质性影响。研究发现:(1)在样本考察期内,高铁开通显著地促进了地区人力资本的提升,在缓解内生性问题及进行一系列稳健性检验之后,这一结论依然成立,且提升作用具有显著的时间动态效应,表现为影响幅度呈逐年上升趋势;(2)作用机制检验发现,高铁开通引致的劳动力流动和产业集聚共同推动了地区人力资本的提升,其中通过劳动力流动的影响最为有效,而产业集聚的影响效果有限;(3)异质性影响表明,高铁开通对地区人力资本的提升效应在东部地区和一般城市更为显著。此外,本文基于中心城市与周边城市的距离划分地理圈层,发现距中心城市200km左右的城市受高铁开通的影响最大。

China’s economy is at a crucial stage of transformation from high-speed growth to high-quality development.In this paper,with the help of the quasi-natural test of exogenous impact structure of high-speed railway opening,using the balance panel data of 285 cities at or above the prefecture level in China from 2003 to 2017,the effect and mechanism of high-speed railway opening on regional human capital were accurately investigated by using the dual difference model and the intermediary effect model.On this basis,the author further explores the heterogeneous impact of high-speed railway on regional human capital.The study found that:(1)during the sample investigation period,the opening of high-speed rail significantly promoted the improvement of regional human capital.After the alleviation of endogenous problems and a series of robustness tests,the conclusion was still valid,and the improvement effect had a significant time dynamic effect,which was manifested as the influence amplitude was increasing year by year.(2)according to the test of action mechanism,labor flow and industrial agglomeration caused by the opening of high-speed railway jointly promote the improvement of regional human capital.Among them,labor flow is the most effective,while industrial agglomeration has a limited effect.(3)heterogeneous impact shows that the effect of high-speed rail on regional human capital is more significant in eastern China and general cities.In addition,based on the geographical distance from the central city,this paper divided the whole geographic peak,and found that cities with a distance of about 200 km from the central city were most affected by the opening of high-speed railway.