迁移动机、人力资本与城市规模：中国新型城镇化模式之争

Migration Motivation,Human Capital and Big Urban Scale:Debate over the New Urbanization Model in China

大城市是否为城镇化道路最佳选择广受争议。本论文以预期人力资本积累替代即期工资收入动机,建立人力资本积累模型,形成城市便利性、人力资本区位和城市规模的解释性框架,以2003-2016年272个城市为样本进行实证检验:固定效应和内生性检验证实人力资本存量越高则城市规模越大,中介效应检验表明大城市促进人力资本积累能力较强且人力资本对城市规模贡献也较大。结论表明,为提高人力资本积累而进行的区位决策将导致大城市规模持续增长,因此增加大城市数量更有利于中国城市化发展。

Whether large cities are the best choice for urbanization is widely debated.In this paper,the motivation of human capital accumulation is replaced by the motivation of immediate wage income,and the model of human capital accumulation is established,which forms the explanatory framework of urban convenience,human capital location and urban scale.Based on 272 cities in 2003-2016,the empirical test was carried out:the fixed effect and endogenous test confirmed that the higher the human capital stock,the larger the size of the city,and the intermediary effect test showed that the large cities have a strong ability to promote human capital accumulation and human capital contributes to the size of the city.The conclusion shows that the location decision to increase the accumulation of human capital will lead to continuous growth of large cities.Therefore,increasing the number of large cities is more conducive to the development of urbanization development in China.