甘肃省暴雨洪水图集计算面雨量的参数敏感性分析

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Rainfall Based on Gansu Province Rainstorm Flood Atlas

面雨量是暴雨洪水计算中的重要参量。本研究以《甘肃暴雨洪水图集》中计算黄河干支流区的百年一遇面雨量为例,利用Sobol’方法分析评价了雨量均值、点雨量变差系数、流域面积等参数对面雨量计算结果的敏感性,指出各参数在不同历时、不同流域尺度、不同流域形状下的敏感性指数差异,对于利用图集计算面雨量具有一定的参考价值。

Surface rainfall is an important parameter in the calculation of storm floods. Taking the calculation of 100 year return area rainfall in the main and tributary areas of the Yellow River in the Atlas of Rainstorm and Flood in Gansu Province as an example, this study used the Sobol’ method to analyze the sensitivity of each parameter to the calculation of surface rainfall. The results show that the sensitivity indexes of each parameter are different under different durations, different watershed scales and different watershed shapes, which has certain reference value for the calculation of areal rainfall by atlas.