广东老年人居住安排状况的影响因素分析——基于地级市和县域数据的实证

Guangdong’s Elders Living Arrangement and Its Influencing Factors:An Empirical Analysis of the Data of Counties and Prefecture-level Cities

依据2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,本文分析了2010-2015年广东老年人居住安排构成的变化和现状特征及其影响因素。广东老年人与成年亲属同住户占绝对优势,老年家庭空巢化程度有所减弱;部分地级市老年夫妇户已超过独居户成为第二位的居住安排类型;119个县域的老年人居住安排差异大于地级市,独居户比例和老年夫妇户比例偏高的县域主要分布于珠三角和粤西,老少同住户比例偏高的县域主要分布于粤西北山区,珠三角核心区县域老年空巢户比例明显高于粤东沿海区。实证分析发现,对地级市老年空巢户比例有负向影响且最显著的因素是平均家庭户规模、老年人生活不能自理比例和平均受教育年限,正向影响较显著的因素是老年男性比例、平均每户住房间数。对县域老年空巢户比例负向影响最大的因素是平均家庭户规模,正向影响较明显的因素是老年人口比例。老年人居住安排状况是宏观经济社会因素和微观家庭选择因素共同建构的结果。

Based on the data of 1%sampling population survey 2015,the paper analyzes the characteristics and change of the elders’living arrangement 2000-2015 and its influencing factors in Guangdong.The findings show that the dominant living arrangement for Guangdong’s elders are the households where elders live with adult relatives,the percentage of empty nest elders drops somehow in the past 15 years.However there are still a relative large percentage of households of either elder couples or widowed elder living alone,while in some prefecture level cities the households of elder couples override the households of widowed elder.The data of 119 counties show that the elder’s living arrangement in county level have more heterogeneity than that of prefecture level,the counties with higher percentage of households of only elder couples or widowed elder mostly locate in Pearl river delta and West of Guangdong,and the counties with highest percentage of elders living with adult children households mostly locate in the northwest mountainous area,while the percentage of elder nest empty households in the core region of pearl river delta is significantly higher than that in the eastern coast region.Further analysis show that the significantly negative factors for the percentage of elder empty nest households in prefecture-level cities are average households size,percentage of the elders failing to live themselves and the average education years,while the significantly positive factors are the percentage of male elders,the average room number of the household.In the county level,the percentage of elder empty nest households are negatively affected by average household size significantly,while positively affected by the elders’percentage significantly.The implications are that the elder’s living arrangement is the interactive construction of both the macro-social economic factors and micro family selection.