模糊痕迹安全决策模型及其应用研究

Research on fuzzy trace safety decision model and its application

为提高不安全行为预防控制的有效性,首先基于模糊痕迹理论,从新的视角研究个体不安全行为发生机制;其次提出模糊要义空间、本真安全空间、安全效价空间、安全风险空间、安全决策可靠度等概念,并建立模糊痕迹安全决策模型(FTSDM);然后根据模型定性描述和分析不安全行为发生机制,并据此建立安全决策数学模型,定量分析安全决策的可靠程度;最后通过简单的实例分析,说明FTSDM的应用方式。结果表明:通过FTSDM,可从新角度解释不安全行为发生的本质,并从提升个体认知本真安全空间能力方面控制不安全行为;通过升维分析,提高要义提取的特征概念与客观事实的吻合程度,避免直接用要义加工的方式进行决策。

In order to improve the effectiveness of prevention and control of unsafe behaviors,firstly,the mechanism of individual unsafe behaviors was studied from a new perspective based on fuzzy trace theory.Secondly,concepts of fuzzy gist space,real safety space,safety valence space,safety risk space and safety decision reliability were put forward,and FTSDM was established,based on which the mechanism of unsafe behavior was described and analyzed qualitatively.Furthermore,a mathematical model of safety decision was established as well,and safety decision reliability was studied quantitatively with it.Eventually the application of FTSDM was demonstrated through simple case studies.The conclusion is that FTSDM can explain the nature of unsafe behaviors from a new perspective and control the unsafe behaviors by improving individuals’ability to recognize real safety space,and the degree of agreement between the feature concept of extracted gist and objective facts is improved through ascending dimension analysis,thus avoiding making decision directly from gist processing.