摘要
采用滑动平均法处理1990-2013年沣河秦渡镇水文站径流量数据序列,建立灰色模型GM(1,1)和权马尔科夫链(WMCP)模型组合预测模型,并利用模糊集理论的级别特征值解决了预测结果为区间状态的问题,将模型进行了优化.结果表明,相较于传统的灰色-马尔科夫模型,在结合了WMCP之后的优化模型预测结果与实测资料比较吻合,模型预报精度有所提高.
The sliding average method is used to optimize the Fenghe runoff data series from 1990-2013,the combination forecasting model of the grey model GM(1,1)and weighted Markov chain(WMCP)model is established,and the level characteristic value of the fuzzy set theory is used to solve the problem that the prediction result is interval state,the model is optimized.The results show that compared with the traditional Gray-Markov model,the prediction results of the optimized model after combining WMCP are basically consistent with the measured data,and the prediction accuracy of the model is improved.
作者
王筱
周维博
WANG Xiao;ZHOU Wei-bo(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecology in Arid Areas of Ministry of Education,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2019年第22期179-186,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
平原水库(昆明池)对区域地下水环境的影响研究
