黄河源区气温变化特征及预估分析

Variation features and prediction of air temperature in the source regions of the Yellow River

利用黄河源区青海段9个代表性站点1961-2017年逐日气温资料和未来RCP4.5排放情景下的预估数据,分析和预估了黄河源区年平均、年平均最高、年平均最低和极端气温变化特征。结果表明:近57年来年平均最高、年平均、年平均最低气温均呈显著上升趋势且倾向率依次增大。年平均气温和年平均最高气温在1997年存在显著突变。通过分析1961-1997年、1998-2007年以及2008-2017年阶段性变化可知,年平均气温持续上升,年平均最高气温先上升后趋于稳定,而年平均最低气温升温速率在1998-2007年最大,2008-2017年升温速率较1998-2007年有所降低。暖昼日数持续增多,霜冻日数和冰封日数持续减少,冷夜日数在1998-2007年减少速率最低,近10年来减少速率增大。未来33年黄河源区年平均、年平均最高、年平均最低气温和极端暖事件均呈明显的增加趋势,极端冷事件呈减少趋势。对黄河源区过去和未来气温变化规律进行了探讨,将为该区域气温变化对策的制定与实施提供理论依据。

Based on the data of air temperature from 9 typical stations in the source regions of the Yellow River from 1961 to2017,the temporal variation features of annual average,annual average maximum,annual average minimum and extreme air temperatures were analyzed and estimated. The main conclusions are as follows:the increasing trend of annual average minimum air temperature had the maximum increment,followed by those of annual average and annual average maximum air temperatures. The annual average air temperature and annual average maximum air temperature had significant mutation in1997. By analyzing the periodic changes during 1961-1997,1998-2007 and 2008-2017,it was shown that the annual average air temperature had increased continuously,the annual average maximum air temperature had increased at the first time and then tended towards stability,while the annual average minimum air temperature had increased rapidly during 1998-2007 and sluggish increased during 2008-2017. The days with warm day time had increased continuously,the frost days and the ice days had decreased continuously,the days with cold night had sluggish decreased during 1998-2007 and decreased rapidly in the last 10 years. The annual average,annual average maximum,annual average minimum air temperatures and the extreme warm events in the source regions of the Yellow River had been all obviously increasing,while the extreme cold events had been decreasing over the next 33 years. To explore the air temperature change in the source regions of the Yellow River may provide theoretical basis for the formulation and implementation against climate change.