交通基础设施促进经济增长的时空差异与机制分析——基于双向固定效应模型的研究

Analysis of Time and Space Differences and Mechanisms of Transportation Infrastructure Promoting Economic Growth——Research based on two-way fixed effect model

文中选用我国2004-2016年31个省最新面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型研究了交通基础设施与经济增长之间的关系,得出以下结论:(1)交通基础设施对经济增长存在着显著的促进作用;(2)交通基础设施对经济增长的影响程度会因时间和空间的差异而有所不同:中部和西部地区交通基础设施对经济增长的影响程度强于东部地区,且对经济增长的影响会因其规模而发生变化,随着投资规模由小到大,其规模效益呈现出由小到大至缓慢下降最后趋于平稳的态势;(3)交通基础设施通过不同渠道影响经济增长:一方面通过乘数效应直接影响经济增长,另一方面通过拉动私家车消费和提高人口城镇化率间接影响经济增长。最后提出了针对性的对策和建议。

This paper selects the latest panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016,and studies the relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic growth by using two-way fixed effect model.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)Transportation infrastructure has a significant role in promoting economic growth.(2)The degree of impact of transportation infrastructure on economic growth will vary with time and space:transportation infrastructure in the central and western regions will have a stronger impact on economic growth than in the eastern region,and will have an impact on economic growth.The impact will change due to its scale.As the scale of investment grows from small to large,its economies of scale will show a trend from small to large to a slow decline and finally stabilize;(3)Transportation infrastructure affects economic growth through different channels.On the one hand,it directly affects economic growth through the multiplier effect.On the other hand,it indirectly affects economic growth by stimulating private car consumption and increasing population urbanization rate.Finally the paper proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions.