货币政策调控对房价泡沫的时变影响研究

Time-varying Effect of Monetary Policy Regulation on House Price Bubble

基于时变参数模型分析利率和货币供应量对房价的基础价值成分及泡沫成分的影响。实证结果显示:利率冲击对房价泡沫的影响在2011年以来已明显减弱,对基础房价的影响有所增加;货币供应量冲击对房价泡沫的影响比较稳定,尽管也会引起基础房价变化,但该部分所占比例始终偏低。这一结果表明:现阶段,紧缩的价格型调控难以抑制房价泡沫,紧缩的数量型调控对抑制泡沫更有效,对住房市场基本面的负面影响也更小;由于房价泡沫对货币供应量的调节十分敏感,货币数量的宽松容易导致房价泡沫失控,而由利率冲击引起的房价变化在很大程度上可以被基本面解释。因此在当前时期,价格型工具仍有较大的操作空间,在控制货币供应量的同时,着重通过价格型调控来稳定总需求更有助于避免房价泡沫膨胀。

Based on the time-varying parameter model,this paper analyzes the impact of interest rate and money supply on the fundamental component and bubble component of house price.The empirical results show that the impact of interest rate shock on the fundamental house price has increased,and the effect of interest rate on bubble has been greatly weakened since 2011.The impact of money supply on house price bubble has always been relatively stable,although it also cause changes in fundamental house price,but this proportion is relatively low.At present,price-oriented regulation can not effectively restrain house price bubble,quantity-oriented regulation is more effective in restraining house price bubble and the negative affect of the fundamental of the housing market is relatively small.Because of the house price bubble is very sensitive to the regulation of money supply,the expansion of money supply will easily lead to the rise of house price bubble,but the changes in house price caused by interest rate shocks can be mostly explained by fundamentals.Therefore,in the current period,there is still much room for price-oriented regulation tools.At this stage,price-oriented regulation is more appropriate to prevent a sharp rise of house price bubble while stabilizing aggregate demand.