产业结构升级对中国经济波动的“稳定器”效应——基于部门价格粘性异质性视角的动态分析

The “Stabilizers” Effects of Industrial Structure Upgrade on Economic Fluctuations in China:Dynamic Analysis Based on the Perspective of Sticky Heterogeneity of Departmental Price

本文通过考察新常态下中国经济结构性的特征事实,构建农业、非农两部门DSGE模型,引入价格粘性异质性的假设,研究产业结构对经济波动的影响,并通过对价格粘性异质性的敏感性分析,探讨了产业结构升级对中国经济波动的"稳定器"效应。研究发现:由于服务业、工业、农业的部门价格粘性依次递减,产业结构升级下部门价格粘性增大是降低经济波动的主要因素;当面临外生冲击时,产业结构升级能够通过非农部门价格粘性的增大,来缓和部门间的价格调整,平抑资本投入的波动幅度,并改善部门间的劳动力要素配置,从而实现产业结构升级对中国经济波动的"稳定器"效应。

With investigating the structural facts of China’s economic structure under the new normal,and introducing the assumption of price viscous heterogeneity,this paper studies the impact of industrial structure on economic fluctuations by the DSGE model of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.Through the sensitivity analysis of price viscous heterogeneity,this paper also explores the"stabilizer"effect of industrial structure upgrading on China’s economic fluctuations.The result shows that as the price stickiness of the service industry,industry and agriculture is decreasing in turn,the increase in the price of the sector under the industrial structure upgrade can be to reduce economic fluctuations,and when faced with an exogenous shock,the industrial structure upgrade can ease the price adjustment between departments through the increase of the price viscosity of the non-agricultural sector,stabilize the fluctuation of capital investment,and improve the allocation of labor factors among departments,which finally forms the"stabilizer"effect of industrial structure upgrading on China’s economic fluctuations.