政府引导、产业转移与经济发展——来自合成控制法的非参数估计

Government guidance,industrial transfer and economic development——Nonparametric Estimation from Synthetic Control Method

经济发展步入转型期的现阶段,如何进行产业转移与升级是政府所亟需解决的主要问题,广东率先实施"双转移"战略,以政府引导产业转移的模式来实现省内产业的重新分布,为寻求经济发展作出尝试,那么政府引导产业转移能否实现地区经济发展呢?文章使用1996-2015年省级面板数据,以"双转移"战略作为准自然实验,并使用合成控制法来评估政府引导产业转移的经济效益。研究发现政府引导产业转移并未成为经济增长的新动力,反而阻碍广东经济发展的原始路径,"双转移"战略使得广东人均产出在2008-2015年间平均降低1%,并且该作用随着政策执行时间的推移逐渐增强。事实证明供给侧结构性改革中,去产能不能只注重政府的引导作用,还需发挥市场对资源配置的主导作用、并结合地区的资源禀赋与发展优势,进行合理的产业分布。

Economic development is entering the current stage of the transition period,how to carry out industrial transfer and upgrading is the main problem need to solved for the government.,Guangdong took the lead in the implementation of"Double Transfer"strategy,and try to develop new opportunities for economic development by the mode of government to guide industrial transfer to achieve the re-distribution of the province’s industry.Then the government to guide the industrial transfer can achieve regional economic development?In this paper,the provincial panel data from1996 to 2015 is used and the"Double Transfer"strategy is used as the quasi-natural experiment,and the synthetic control method is used to evaluate whether the government can guide the industrial transfer to realize the further development of the regional economy.The results found that the government to guide the industrial transfer did not achieve the desired results,but hindered the regional economic growth,the"Double Transfer"strategy making the per capita output of Guangdong in 2008 to 2015 reduction of 1%,and the role of the delay gradually increased over time.Specifically.The facts have proved that de-capacity cannot only focus on the guiding role of the government,but also play a leading role in the allocation of resources in the supply-side structural reform,and combined with the resource endowment and development advantages of the region,a reasonable industrial distribution is carried out.