“一带一路”国家基础设施状况对我国OFDI的影响——基于面板门槛模型的研究

The Impact of Countries’ Infrastructure along “One Belt,One Road” on China’s OFDI: A Study Based on Panel Threshold Model

"一带一路"倡议的实施不仅标志着中国对外开放步入更高的经济开放水平,而且还强调了基础设施建设对于沿线国家与中国共同发展、实现共赢的积极意义。文章基于"一带一路"沿线60个国家的数据,将"一带一路"国家基础设施发展状况作为核心变量,利用面板门槛模型,分析其在吸引我国对外直接投资中所发挥的作用。研究结果表明:从整体上看,"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施发展状况较好,可以有效促进中国企业对外直接投资,但这种促进效应在一定程度上受限于门槛值。低基础设施发展水平地区对我国企业对外直接投资增长的贡献度达2. 658%,而高基础设施发展水平地区的贡献度仅为1. 967%。此外,东道国的经济发展水平和对外开放程度对我国企业对外直接投资有着显著的正向作用,自然资源丰裕程度与对外直接投资无显著关系。

The implementation of "One Belt,One Road"initiative not only demonstrates China’s opening to the outside world has stepped into a higher level,but also emphasizes infrastructure has positive impacts on both mutual development between China and countries along the routes and realization of win-win situation. Based on the data of 60 counties along the routes,this paper takes the national infrastructural development as a prime variable and analyses its influence on attracting China’s outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) by using panel threshold model. Results show that the infrastructure development along the "One Belt,One Road"is good in general,which can effectively increase China’s OFDI,however,it is limited by the threshold to a certain extent. Those regions with low infrastructure development level make 2. 658% of contribution to the increase of OFDI of Chinese firms. While regions with high infrastructure development level only contribute 1. 967%. Furthermore,these countries’ economic development and degree of openness have significant positive effects on the OFDI of Chinese firms. However,the sufficiency of natural resources has nothing to do with it.