甘肃省县域经济差异时空分异及影响因子研究

Spatiotemporal Variations of County Economies and Influencing Factors: A Case Study of Gansu Province

不同因子对区域经济差异的影响一直是国内外学者关注的重点及热点问题,探究县域经济时间过程演变和空间格局分异的主导影响因子,科学揭示各因子的作用机制,将为区域经济发展战略的制定提供重要指导依据。本文以甘肃省县域为研究单元,利用空间化表达、标准差椭圆分析县域经济空间分异现象,借助多元线性逐步回归和地理探测器对县域经济时空分异影响因素进行探讨。研究结果表明:①甘肃省县域经济之间的总体差异明显,随时间波动较大;②县域经济空间分布重心不稳定,变动较大;③财政收入、城镇化率和工业产业比重是主导的时间影响因子;④铁路密度、公路密度、河流密度是甘肃省县域经济空间分异的主要地理因子,且因子之间的交互作用强于单因子对经济空间分异的作用。在协调县域经济发展过程中,应根据主要影响因素精准实施发展策略,合理利用因子之间的交互作用,加快经济协调发展。

The influence of factors on regional economic disparity has always been the focus and a hot issue of scholars at home and abroad.Exploring the dominant influencing factors of the spatiotemporal evolution of county economies and scientifically revealing the mechanism of each factor will provide an important guiding basis for formulating regional economic development strategies.The present paper took the counties of Gansu Province as the research units,and analyzed the spatial differentiation of the county economies by standard deviation ellipse,and examined the factors affecting the spatiotemporal differentiation of the county economies by multivariate linear stepwise regression and geographic detectors.The results show that:(1)The overall difference was obvious between the county economies of Gansu Province,and it fluctuated greatly with time;(2)The spatial distribution of the county economy was unstable and had a large change;(3)fiscal revenue,urbanization rate,and industrial proportion were the main time impact factors of time evolution differentiation;(4)railway density,highway density,river density were the main geographical influence factors of spatial differentiation of the county economies of Gansu Province,and the interaction between two factors was stronger than the effect of one single factor on the economic spatial differentiation.Our findings suggest that,in the process of coordinating county-level economic development,the development strategy should be accurately implemented according to the main influencing factors,and that the interactions between factors should be rationally utilized to accelerate the coordinated development.