货币政策的国际前沿研究方法——日本货币政策结构性分析系统的构建和应用

International Frontier Research on Monetary Policy——A Case Study of Structural Policy Analysis System

本文对货币政策领域前沿的结构性分析方法进行介绍,以日本为案例构建一个简单的结构性政策分析系统,并应用该系统分析日本货币政策效果受限的可能原因。对于采用多目标、多工具货币政策框架、并处于快速改革阶段的中国来说,结构性分析方法的应用稍复杂,但并没有无法解决的技术障碍。该方法不仅可以避免传统计量方法难以应对的维度灾难和卢卡斯批评,且对数据数量和质量也没有过高的依赖,其突出的前瞻性特征有望在中国的货币政策研究和目标简化等改革中发挥作用。

This paper introduces the structural approach in monetary policy research,through a case study of building a simple structural policy analysis system for Japan;and using it to explore possible causes and implications of the failure of monetary policy in Japan.Building a structural policy analysis system for the monetary policy framework in China could be challenged by the current multiple-objective multiple-instrument monetary policy framework,as well as the rapid progress of economic and structural reforms.However,there is no fundamental technical difficulty which jeopardizes the usefulness of structural approach to study the problem.The structural approach addresses the Lucas Critique,circumvents the“curse of dimensionality”,as well as lowers reliance on high data quality and quantity.Most importantly,its advantage in formulating forward looking policy empowers the structural approach to play a significant role in policy research and reform of monetary policy framework in China.