近期国内LNG现货价格走势分析

Analysis of domestic spot LNG price trend

2019年国内经济下行、工业品价格回落、"煤改气"政策放松,共同导致天然气需求增速回落。同时,沿海LNG接收站接连投产与海上LNG现货进口增长,加之中俄东线天然气管道投产在即,将有效缓解中亚管道天然气的供应风险。此外,替代能源、库存商业运作、运费回落也将缓解天然气局部供应紧张。因此,预计在国际LNG市场总体供过于求、国内基础设施条件持续改善的条件下,预计今冬明春国内天然气市场的保供压力将小于往年,而市场化程度较高的国内LNG现货市场价格亦不存在大幅走高、持续高位的基础。

In 2019,the economic downturn,the fall in the price of industrial products,and the loose policy of coal-to-gas jointly led to the fall in the growth rate of natural gas consumption demand.Meanwhile,the north line of the natural gas pipeline project of the East China&Russia line is fully connected,the coastal LNG terminals are put into operation,and the offshore LNG spot import expansion will effectively mitigate the supply risk of the Central Asia pipeline.In addition,alternative energy,inventory business operation,and falling freight charge also ease the regional natural gas tension supply.Therefore,it is expected that the supply pressure in the domestic natural gas market will be lower this winter and next spring than that in previous years under the conditions of overall oversupply in the international LNG market and continuous improvement in domestic infrastructure conditions.The highly marketized domestic LNG spot market price may not rise higher and keep high.