油气勘探决策中信息价值应用探讨

The application of VOI on decision analysis for oil and gas exploration

在油气勘探决策中,一般认为获取的资料和信息越多越好,但信息获取是有成本的,特别是海外项目。在相关研究中,对于地震资料、购买资料包、外协研究等信息的价值评价理论和方法,国内研究较少,国际上的研究历史则已有半个多世纪。通过油气评价井信息价值,在油气勘探决策中引入信息价值概念。以地震资料获取为例,拓展信息价值分析中完全信息和不完全信息的价值区别。信息价值分析的意义在于:正确识别油气勘探决策中的风险,计算潜在信息的最大价值,找到不同信息价值差别的原因。在有限资源基础上,尽可能获取油气勘探决策所需高价值信息,减少和避免把资源分配到决策中的无用信息上。

In the decision-making of oil&gas exploration,it is generally accepted that the more data and information available,the better.But access to information comes at a cost,especially for overseas projects.In real decision-making,there are few domestic researches on the theory and method of value evaluation of seismic data,purchase data package,outsourcing research and other information,while international researches in this field have been conducted for more than half a century.The concept of information value is introduced into the decision-making of oil and gas exploration by appraisal well information value.Taking the acquisition of seismic data as an example,explore the difference in value between perfect information and imperfect information.The significance of VOI analysis includes correctly identifying the risks in oil and gas exploration decisions,calculating the maximum value of potential information,and exploring reasons for the difference in VOI.On the basis of limited resources,we should try our best to obtain the high-value information needed for oil and gas exploration decisions,and reduce&avoid resource allocation to the useless information in the decisions.