考虑交叉口上自行车冲突的改进社会力模型

An Improved Social Force Model Considering Bicycle Conflicts at Intersection

随着“共享单车”的数量激增,在自行车行驶空间不足的条件下,骑行者占用行人路权,迫使行人产生减速、转向等避让行为。在交通混织的交叉口,自行车与人的冲突尤为严重,不仅增加了交叉口通行时间,更降低了行人安全。为优化交叉口交通组织,需深入分析行人在自行车扰动环境下的复杂行为模式,建立微观行人模型展开仿真分析。然而,已有研究多基于西方城市完备的自行车行驶环境,对国内因缺少自行车规划导致的人车冲突考虑不足,致使仿真结果不准确。因此,基于社会力理论提出改进的行人模型,建立了行人与自行车冲突仿真模型。此外,为克服传统摄像头拍摄角度的局限性,利用无人机采集提取了完整的行人运动轨迹数据,并结合最大似然估计方法对模型进行标定;最后引入原始社会力模型作对比,利用行人真实轨迹数据验证模型精度。实验结果表明:改进的行人模型更能真实合理地描述现实世界中行人的随机行为,对国内行人行为研究具有重要意义,为交叉口的交通规划、管理和信号控制方案设计提供理论依据。

With the rapid increase of the number of“shared bicycles”,under the condition of insufficient bicycle driving space,riders occupy the right of way,forcing pedestrians to slow down,turn and do other evasive behaviors.In the traffic mixed intersection,the conflict between bicycles and pedestrians is particularly serious,which not only increases the traffic time of the intersection,but also reduces the pedestrian safety.In order to optimize the traffic organization of intersections,it is necessary to deeply analyze the complex behavior patterns of pedestrians in the environment of bicycle disturbance,and establish a micro pedestrian model to carry out simulation analysis.However,most of the existing studies are based on the complete bicycle driving environment in western cities and lack of consideration of the pedestrian-vehicle conflict caused by the lack of bicycle planning in China,resulting in inaccurate simulation results.Therefore,based on the social force theory,an improved pedestrian model was proposed,and a pedestrian-bicycle conflict simulation model was established.In addition,in order to overcome the limitation of traditional camera shooting angle,the UAV was used to collect and extract the complete pedestrian trajectory data,and the proposed model was calibrated with the maximum likelihood estimation method.Finally,the original social force model was introduced for comparison,and the accuracy of the proposed model was verified by the real trajectory data of pedestrians.The test results show that:the improved pedestrian model can more truly and reasonably describe the random behavior of pedestrians in the real world,which is of great significance to the study of pedestrian behavior in China and provides theoretical basis for the traffic planning,management and signal control scheme design of intersections.