生态承载力评价方法研究进展

Research and model application in ecological carrying capacity

生态承载力是当前生态学、地理学、经济学等领域的研究热点,生态承载力评价方法的研究对于区域社会经济协调可持续发展具有重要的意义。在详细阐述生态承载力概念、内涵、国内主要研究领域、研究机构的基础上,重点分析比较了目前生态承载力所涉及的研究方法,并比较了不同模型之间的优缺点,最后分析总结了目前生态承载力研究存在的不足和未来需要加强的领域和方向。从方法上来看,目前所用方法主要有:(1)指标体系综合评价法;(2)产品周期综合评价法;(3)结合不同学科和不同方法的综合评价法。目前生态承载力的研究缺乏科学完整的研究体系,尚未构建具有普适性的评价指标体系,演化趋势与模拟预测研究不足,格局分异研究较少,未来应该在以下几个方面深入研究:(1)加强生态承载力模型集成研究。由于生态承载力问题十分复杂,涉及资源、环境、生态、社会、经济等诸多要素,因此需要综合各个要素之间的相互关系及影响机制,进行不同模型集成和综合研究;(2)应从影响生态承载力的主动与被动因子,动态与静态因子出发,构建综合性和普适性较强的评价体系;(3)加强生态承载力的动态模拟研究,实现对生态承载力潜力的估算和动态变化过程的监测;(4)研究不同尺度下生态承载力时空变化特征及空间分异,并对比分析各模型对不同尺度的精度要求和结果的可靠性。

Background,aim,and scope Ecological carrying capacity(ECC)is a research frontier in the domain of ecology,geography and economics,which is of great significance for the coordinated and sustainable development of local social economy.The concept of carrying capacity can be dated back to the 1920s,which is used to describe the limitation of natural resources and environment and its influence in the development of human society.Since 1990s,with the continuous expansion of the application scope on carrying capacity,and the concept of ecological carrying capacity has been derived.In this study,we aim to put forward the fields and directions of ecological carrying capacity that need to be strengthened in the future through comparing the models and methods and analyzing existing problem.Materials and methods The conception of ecological carrying capacity,connotation,research field,research institutions were analyzed,and various research methods,advantages and disadvantages of models were also analyzed and compared on the basis of comparative analysis the different models.Last,the deficiencies of current research of ecological carrying capacity and the research direction in the future were summarized.Results Seen from the perspective methods,it mainly includes:(1)comprehensive evaluation indicator system;(2)product cycle comprehensive evaluation method;(3)comprehensive evaluation method combining different disciplines and methods.Discussion There is a lack of scientific and complete research system,a universal evaluation index system has not been built and the evolution trend and simulation research are scarce.Conclusions The research on ecological carrying capacity should be lucubrated as follows:(1)to strengthen the integration research on ecological carrying capacity model.Ecological carrying capacity is very complex field,involving resources,environment,ecology,society,economy and many other discipline,it is necessary to integrate the mutual relations and influence mechanism among various elements,and conduct different model integration and comprehensive research.(2)establish the comprehensive indicator system,including five major categories of indicators:population,economy,resources,environment and ecology.Start from the active factor,passive factor,dynamic factor and static factor,and build a comprehensive and relatively universal evaluation system;(3)strengthen the dynamic simulation research,and realize the estimation of ecological carrying capacity potential and the prediction of dynamic change process;(4)study the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and spatial differentiation of ecological carrying capacity at different scales,and analyze the accuracy requirements of each model at different scales and the reliability of the results.Recommendations and perspectives The studies on research and model application in ecological carrying capacity have made a great progress and achievements.However,there are still some shortages concerning scientific and complete research system,universal evaluation index system,and the evolution trend and simulation research which have not been addressed and investigated further.As mentioned above problems,we suggested research directions that we need to do in future works.