签证制度影响入境游客流规模的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Visa System on the Scale of Inbound Tourist Flow

签证制度便利化对扩大入境游客流规模具有重要作用。以2005~2017年我国主要入境旅游客源国(地区)的截面数据为基础,采用广义最小二乘估计方法与引力模型实证分析签证制度细分样态对入境游客流规模的影响。结果表明,不同细分类型的签证制度对我国入境旅游客流增长总体效应的显著性水平排序为:境内30日停留普签>APEC商务旅行卡持有者免签>港澳台居民往来大陆通行证持有者免签。为了促进入境旅游客流规模扩张,我国可通过扩大签证制度受益范围、提升签证制度全要素生产率、增设免签制度定向服务,不断优化签证制度效率及便利化程度。

Visa system facilitation plays an important role in expanding the scale of inbound tourist flow.Based on the cross-section data of the major source countries(regions)of inbound tourism in China from 2005 to 2017,this paper,using generalized least squares estimation method and gravity model,conducts an empirical study on the impact of visa types on the scale of inbound tourism flow.Results show that the magnitude of the influence exerted by different types of visa on China's inbound tourism growth can be measured as following sequence:staying within the territory for 30 days with ordinary visa,followed by the APEC business travel card visa-free holders,and then followed by visafree Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan residents with the mainland travel permit.In order to expand inbound tourist flow,China can continuously optimize the efficiency and facilitation of the visa system by expanding the scope of the visa system,improving the total factor productivity of the visa system,and supporting targeted services of the visa-free system.