基于灰靶决策模型的煤自燃程度判定方法

Determination method for coal spontaneous combustion degree based on grey target decision model

为了提高矿井煤自燃预测预报准确性,采用程序升温煤自燃氧化模拟实验,分析了煤自燃氧化过程中指标气体和煤温的变化规律,划分了煤自燃氧化阶段,确定了煤自燃适用的预测指标。基于多指标加权灰靶决策理论,提出了煤自燃程度多指标融合判定方法。结果表明:指标△CO/△O 2、△CO 2/△O 2和△CO/△CO 2均适用于煤自燃预测预报;煤自燃缓慢氧化、加速氧化和剧烈氧化阶段的温度范围分别为<60.4℃、60.4~121.9℃和>121.9℃,各阶段升温规律具有明显差异;采用多指标融合方法判定煤自燃程度,靶心距随煤温升高基本呈线性生成,数据分辨率得到显著提高,可有效提高煤自燃预测预报结果的准确性。

In order to improve the accuracy of prediction for coal spontaneous combustion in mine,the change regularity of index gases and coal temperature in the process of coal spontaneous combustion was analyzed by the simulation experiment of programed heating.The stages of coal spontaneous combustion oxidation were divided.The applicative prediction indexes of coal spontaneous combustion were determined.Based on the theory of multi-index weighted grey target decision,a multi-index fusion method for determining the degree of coal spontaneous combustion was proposed.The results show that all of the indexes including△CO/△O 2,△CO 2/△O 2 and△CO/△CO 2 are suitable for coal spontaneous combustion prediction.The temperature ranges of slow oxidation,accelerated oxidation and intense oxidation of coal spontaneous combustion respectively are<60.4℃,60.4℃~121.9℃and>121.9℃,and the rules of temperature rise in each stage have obvious differences.The target distance was linearly generated with the increase of coal temperature by using the multi-index fusion method to determine the degree of coal spontaneous combustion.The data resolution is significantly improved,which can effectively improve the accuracy of forecasting coal spontaneous combustion.