税收政策、产业结构升级与对外直接投资——基于税收结构异质性的母国驱动力探析

A Study on the Differentiated Effect of Tax Structure and Industrial Structure Upgrading on OFDI: Analysis of Mother Country Driving Force Based on Tax Structure Heterogeneity

企业对外直接投资(OFDI)需要母国制度的激励和引导,税收政策对企业OFDI动机和行为具有直接影响。税收结构由税收政策和产业结构共同决定,基于中国税收结构的时空异质性,实证分析表明:地方税收结构对地区OFDI存量具有显著影响,所得税比重与OFDI存量显著负相关,其他税比重与OFDI存量显著正相关,流转税比重与OFDI存量正相关但不显著;税收结构与OFDI存量互为因果关系;地区产业结构升级与OFDI存量显著正相关,并对税收结构影响OFDI存量具有调节作用,显著强化了所得税比重的负向影响,显著弱化了其他税比重的正向影响。目前,中国企业OFDI的国内主要驱动力并非“避税效应”,而是产业结构升级和资源环境成本压力;产业结构升级本身会推动企业OFDI,但也会通过改善国内营商环境、缓解资源环境成本压力等路径抑制企业OFDI。政府应加强对企业OFDI的引导,实现产业结构升级与OFDI的协同;企业应加快开放发展,积极通过OFDI优化资源配置和融入全球价值链。

The outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)of the enterprises needs the encouragement and guide of their mother country,and tax policy has direct effect on the motive and behavior of OFDI enterprises.Tax structure is determined by both tax policy and industrial structure.Based on spatial-temporal heterogeneity of China’s tax structure,empirical analysis shows that local tax structure has significant effect on regional OFDI stock,that there is significantly negative correlation between income tax ratio and OFDI stock,that other tax ratio is positively correlated with OFDI stock,that the correlation between turnover tax ratio and OFDI stock is positive but is not significant,and that the relationship between tax structure and OFDI stock is interactive causality.Regional industrial structure upgrading is significantly positively correlated with OFDI stock and can adjust the effect of tax structure on OFDI stock,which significantly strengthen the negative effect of income tax ratio but significantly weaken the positive effect of other tax ratio.Currently,the domestic main force to promote OFDI of China’s enterprises is not“tax evasion”but is industrial structure upgrading and other factors of resources and environment cost pressure.Therefore,industrial structure upgrading itself can boost OFDI of the enterprises but can inhibit OFDI by improving domestic business environment and mitigating the pressure of resources and environment and so on.Governments should enhance the guide of the OFDI,and realize the coordination between industrial structure upgrading and OFDI.China’s enterprises should accelerate openness and development,actively optimize resources allocation and integrate into global value chain through OFDI.