我国农业劳动生产率影响因素实证研究

Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of Agricultural Labor Productivity in China

本文基于1978-2016年农业劳动生产率及相关指标数据,运用VAR模型和动态面板模型发现:全国土地生产率与人均资本每增加一个百分点农业劳动生产率分别增加0.31、1.05个百分点,劳动力人数每增加一个百分点农业劳动生产率下降0.39个百分点,方差分解贡献排名为土地生产率50%、农业生产率28%、人均资本19%;辽宁、西藏、上海、四川、宁夏土地生产率有待提高,陕西、浙江、广东、海南、宁夏、山东应加快转移农业劳动力;区域来看率先加强西部、中部地区农业资金扶持力度,重点转移东、中部地区农业劳动生产力,优先开发中部、东部地区土地生产潜力。

Based on the agricultural labor productivity and relevant index data from 1978 to 2016,this paper uses VAR model and dynamic panel model to analyze the data and finds out that the agricultural labor productivity increases by 0.31%and 1.05%respectively when the national land productivity and per capita capital increase by 1%.It also finds that the agricultural labor productivity fell by 1%when labor force increase by 1%,and the variance decomposition contribution rankings for agricultural productivity are land productivity(50%),agricultural productivity(28%),and per capita capital(19%).The land productivity of Liaoning,Tibet,Shanghai,Sichuan and Ningxia needs to be improved,and Shaanxi,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Hainan,Ningxia and Shandong should accelerate the transfer of agricultural labor force.It is of great importance to strengthen the agricultural capital support first in the western and central regions,focus on the transfer of agricultural labor force in the east and central regions and give priority to the development of land production potential in the central and eastern regions.