贸易政策与资本回报:以中国对外反倾销为例的经验分析

Trade Policy and the Return on Capital: An Empirical Analysis Based on China’s Anti-Dumping Practice

本文通过考察中国实施反倾销对涉案行业资本回报的影响,研究贸易政策如何影响资本收益。作者运用3种方法测度上市公司股票的超额收益,计量分析发现中国对外反倾销对相关行业的资本回报具有正向促进作用,对外反倾销会促进相关企业边际和平均投资市场价值的上升,从而使其股票具有超额收益,刺激企业进行投资,随着资本存量的增加企业趋于新的均衡,股票超额收益下降。此外,本文从资本密集度和资产专用性角度进行了异质性分析,证明反倾销措施能显著提高涉案行业的资本回报率。未来中国要合理运用贸易政策抵消国外厂商不公平贸易行为带来的负面冲击,维护市场稳定。

In examining the effect that China's anti-dumping exerts on other countries in terms of returns on capital of the industries involved,this paper studies the impact of trade policy on capital returns Using the CSMAR database between 1997 and 2015,the excess return on a firm's equity is estimated through three different methods,and empirical analysis based on the Global Anti-dumping Database is conducted Econometric analysis shows that China's anti-dumping measures on specific industries have positively promoted the return on equity of listed companies in these industries,which means that anti-dumping presents a positive impact on returns on capital;anti-dumping measures promote the rise of marginal and average market values of related firms'investments,so that their equity shows excess return,stimulating the investment of firms As the capital stock increases,firms tend towards a new equilibrium and excess returns on equity decrease The paper also conducts a heterogeneity analysis from the perspectives of capital intensity and asset specificity,demonstrating that anti-dumping measures can significantly improve the return on capital of the industries involved In the context of rapid changes within the Chinese stock market and market sentiment volatility,all areas in China should be implementing and applying trade policies in an appropriate and reasonable manner so that they can offset the negative impact of unfair trade practices by foreign manufacturers and maintain market stability.