公交车火灾事故致因风险评价指标体系研究

Research on Risk Assessment Index System of Bus Fire Accidents

城市公交车辆具有密闭拥挤的特点,一旦发生火灾事故易造成群死群伤的严重后果,已成为城市公共安全的重大隐患之一。为评价城市公交车辆的安全性,分析导致公交车火灾事故的主要因素,基于案例分析法,选取2005-2017年的143起公交车火灾事故案例作为研究对象,在分析每起案例的事故原因和伤亡情况的基础上,归纳出公交车火灾事故性质及事故发生时间规律,建立了公交车火灾事故致因风险评价指标体系,并根据事故致因关键词出现的频率计算出各评价指标的权重,建立了公交车火灾事故致因风险因素鱼骨图。结果表明:电气系统因素、乘客行为因素和机械因素是导致公交车火灾事故发生的主要因素;相较于层次分析法(AHP),基于事故致因关键词出现的频率计算评价指标权重来评价公交车火灾事故的风险,避免了专家打分的主观性,使得评价结果更为客观。

Public buses in a city often suffer a lot when facing sudden fire.Having the characteristics of airtightness and crowdedness,a bus is a hidden danger for city public safety when it catches fire.For the sake of evaluating the safety of public buses,this paper analyzes the main factors leading to bus fire accidents and selects 143 bus fire accident cases during 2005 and 2017 as research objects.By analyzing the causes of accidents and casualties in each case,the paper sums up the nature of bus fire accidents and the regularity of accident occurrence time,establishes a risk evaluation index system for bus fire accidents,calculates the weights based on the frequency of accident-causing keywords,and establishes the fish bone diagram of the causative risk factors of bus fire accidents.The results indicate that the main causes of bus fire accidents are electrical appliance system factor,passengers’behavior factor,and mechanical factor.Compared with AHP,the case analysis method using the frequency of accident-causing keywords to calculate weights avoids the subjectivity of experts’scoring and makes the evaluation results more objective.