基于X-12-ARIMA模型的中国民航鸟击事故征候分析

Analysis of Chinese Civil Aviation Bird Strike Incidents Based on X-12-ARIMA Model

近年来,随着我国民航运输量加大,鸟击事故征候随之增加,2006-2017年鸟击事故征候数占事故征候总数的51.609%。运用X12季节调整法对2006-2017年鸟击月度事故征候万次率时间序列进行分解,分解为趋势循环因素、季节因素和不规则因素。各因素序列波动曲线表明,从长期来看,鸟击对中国民航安全的威胁不断加大;鸟击受季节性因素影响较大,春季4、5月份与秋季9、10月份的季节因素波动最为明显;鸟类受天气、人类活动、自然灾害等突发事件的影响而进行的群体性的迁徙活动严重影响飞机起降安全,2006年1月到2010年1月期间的鸟击事故征候万次率不规则因素波动幅度明显,2012年1月与2013年12月等个别月份波动幅度较大。

In recent years,with civil aviation of China traffic volume increasing,the number of bird strike incidents increases,and the number of bird strike incidents accounts for 51.609%of the total number of incidents in 2006-2017.Applying the X12 seasonal adjustment method,the time series of the monthly rate of bird strike monthly incidents in 2006-2017 is decomposed and separated into trend cycle factors,seasonal factors and irregularities.The sequence fluctuation curve of each factor shows that from a long-term point of view,the threat of bird strikes to the safety of civil aviation of China continues to increase.Bird strikes are more affected by seasonal factors.Seasonal fluctuations are most pronounced in April and May in spring and September and October in autumn.The mass migration of birds affected by unexpected events such as weather,human activities and natural disasters seriously affects the safety of aircraft taking off and landing.The volatility of the irregularities in the number of bird strike incidents is significantly greater than that in other years from January 2006 to January 2010,larger fluctuations in individual months such as January 2012 and December 2013.The fluctuation of the month is relatively large.