基于信息扩散概率的职业病风险评估模型探讨及应用

Exploration and application of occupational disease risk assessment model based on information diffusion theory

目的探索构建基于信息扩散理论的职业病风险评估模型。方法于2018年5月,收集2012至2017年广东省报告的职业性尘肺病、职业中毒、职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病、职业性肿瘤病例,基于信息扩散原理,通过扩散函数对不完备的职业病信息进行扩充,建立观测样本和风险概率分布的映射关系,构建职业病风险评估模型,对职业病报告病例数据进行风险评估分析。结果广东省报告职业性尘肺的年报告病例200~300人之间的概率为67.77%,职业性中毒的年报告病例100~200人之间的概率为68.52%,职业性肿瘤的年报告病例20~40人之间的概率为71.62%,年报告职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病200人左右病例的发生概率为63.23%。结论建立基于信息扩散理论的职业病风险评估模型,其评估结果与职业病发病实际基本相符,可为职业病防控提供参考依据。

Objective To research build a kind of occupational disease risk assessment model which provides scientific basis for prevention and control of occupational diseases.Methods Based on the principle of information diffusion,this paper uses spread function to extend the incomplete gathered information,establishes the mapping relationship between observation samples and risk probability distributions,and constructs the occupational disease risk assessment model,to analyzes the risk data of occupational disease reported cases in Guangdong Province in the past five years.Results Through evaluation analysis,every year,200-300 cases of pneumoconiosis probability is 67.77%,100-200 cases of occupational poisoning probability is 68.52%,20-40 cases of occupational cancers probability is 71.62%,each year,the incidence of occupation otorhinolaryngology and oral diseases in 200 cases was 62.23%.Conclusion A model of occupational disease risk assessment based on information diffusion theory is constructed,the evaluation result is basically consistent with the actual situation of occupational disease,which can provide reference for occupational disease prevention and control.