日欧、美欧及美日自贸协议对中国经济的影响——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析

The Impacts of Four Free Trade Agreements between Japan,Europe and US on China’s Economy

本文利用GTAP模型,从宏观与行业两个层面,模拟分析日欧自贸协议、美欧自贸协议、美日自贸协议以及加拿大等多个国家(地区)加入日本与美欧签订的自贸协议这4种情况对中国经济的影响,还分析了中国促进技术进步,以应对上述4种自贸协议影响的效果。结论如下:上述自贸协议不但引致中国的GDP、居民收入、居民消费和资本回流净收益率下降,外贸顺差扩大,还使得中国出口贸易总额与总产出水平下降,而且随着参与自贸协议国家(地区)数量的增加,中国宏观经济与产业受到的影响也随之扩大;中国促进技术进步,能够减轻甚至可以消除美日欧自贸协议对中国宏观经济与产业的冲击。

Using the GTAP model,this paper simulated and analyzed the impacts of four free trade agreements( FTAs) on China’ s economy from both macro and industrial aspects: Japan-Europe,America-Japan,America-Europe as well as Canada and other countries joining the FTAs signed by Japan and the United States-Europe. It also analyzed China’ s promotion of technological progress and its response to the four FTAs mentioned above. The results are as follows: These FTAs will decrease China’ s exports,output,GDP,household income,household consumption,and net capital return rate while increasing its foreign trade surplus. The more countries involved in the FTAs,the greater the influence will be on China’ s macro and industrial economy. With the development of technology,China can not only mitigate,but even eliminate the impacts of the above FTAs on China’ s macro economy and industries.