基于系统动力学的乳制品冷链库存仿真分析

Simulation Analysis of Dairy Cold Chain Inventory Based on System Dynamics

乳制品冷链物流是指原料乳及加工制品在加工、储藏、 运输和零售过程中的物流活动,必须保证乳制品所需的低温条件.由于生产厂家不能直接出售给消费者,需要通过各个渠道进行分销,冷链物流的建立可以大大降低乳制品在运输和储存时的变质率.为了有效地控制冷链物流的库存容量和保证供应链的运作效率,依据系统动力学原理,建立由零售商,供应商以及生产商三者组成的系统动力学模型.运用Vensim软件进行仿真分析.模拟了在延迟供货的条件下以及在不同温度环境下的生产商、 供应商、 零售商库存水平.结果表明,在乳制品冷链中存在牛鞭效应,零售商冷库温度在-4℃时变质量最低.

Dairy cold chain logistics refers to the logistics activities of raw milk and processed products in the process of processing,storage,transportation and retail.The low temperature conditions required for dairy products must be guaranteed.Since the manufacturer cannot directly sell to consumers,it needs to be distributed through various channels.The establishment of cold chain logistics can greatly reduce the deterioration rate of dairy products during transportation and storage.In order to effectively control the inventory capacity of cold chain logistics and ensure the operational efficiency of the supply chain,a system dynamics model consisting of retailers,suppliers and producers is established based on the principle of system dynamics.Simulation analysis was performed using Vensim software.Simulated inventory levels of producers,suppliers,and retailers under conditions of delayed supply and under different temperature environments.The results show that there is a bullwhip effect in the cold chain logistics,and the retailer’s cold storage temperature is the lowest at-4℃.