随迁子女、已婚流动人口与劳动供给的关系研究——基于中国流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析

On Relationship between Trailing Offsprings, Married Migrantsand Labor Supply:Based on Migrants Dynamic Survey in China

本文利用2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,实证分析随迁子女对我国城乡流动人口劳动供给的影响及差异。OLS结果显示,随迁子女数量的增加会显著降低我国城镇、农村女性流动人口的劳动供给,显著增加农村男性流动人口的劳动供给,但对城镇男性流动人口的劳动供给无显著影响。在运用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS-IV)并以“第一胎是否为男孩”作为工具变量以解决研究中存在的内生性问题后,结果表明随迁子女数量对我国农村女性流动人口劳动供给的负向影响仍然显著,但对其他群体的劳动供给影响均不再显著。今后应进一步加强对我国农村流动人口尤其是农村女性流动人口的就业及生育保障,降低流动人口的异地育儿成本,增强流动群体尤其是农村女性流动人口劳动供给的稳定性。

Based on the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)in 2016,from the perspective of household registration and gender,this paper uses 2SLS and compares the results with OLS to analyze the characteristics and differences of the impact of the fertility rate of migrants on labor supply.The results show that the increase of the fertility rate significantly reduces the labor supply of migrant women in China,but it promotes the labor supply of migrant men in agriculture in China.After regression with instrumental variables,the negative impact of fertility rate on the labor supply of migrant women in agriculture in China is still significant,but the impact on non-agricultural migrant women and migrant men is no longer significant.The study holds that the household registration reform system should be further implemented to provide policy support and guarantee for the rational choice between child-rearing and labor supply of migrant women in China,especially in rural areas.