“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放量测度及影响因素研究

Study on Measurement and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Countries Along the Belt and Road Initiative

通过测度碳排放量,分析了碳排放量的时空特征,利用LMDI模型将“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放的影响因子分解为人口规模、经济活动、产业结构和技术效率,研究得出:①丝绸之路经济带的碳排放空间特征稳定,中国是最大的碳排放国家,北线和南线是碳排放的高值地区;②丝绸之路经济带的碳排放量呈上升趋势,经济活动效应是影响碳排放量的主导因素;③不同因子对各个国家碳排放的影响轨迹具有差异性,经济活动效应对碳排放的影响成倒“U”型曲线关系,产业结构和技术效率呈负向作用。提出了加强区域合作、推动产业创新模式、改善能源消费结构等措施。以供参考。

By measuring carbon emission,the space-time characteristics of carbon emission are analyzed.The LMDI model is used to decompose the influence factors of carbon emission into population scale,economic activity,industrial structure and technical efficiency.The study concludes that:(1)The carbon footprint of Silk Road Economic Belt is stable;China is the largest carbon emission country;The north and South lines are high-value areas of carbon emissions(2)The carbon footprint of the Silk Road Economic Belt is on the rise,and the economic activity effect is the dominant factor affecting the carbon emission.(3)The influence of different factors on carbon emissions in each country is varied;the effect of economic activity on carbon emissions is inverted“U”curve relationship.Industrial structure and technical efficiency have negative effects.It puts forward measures such as strengthening regional cooperation,promoting industrial innovation mode and improving energy consumption structure.