国际原油价格与石油装备制造业竞争力的关联效应研究

Research on the correlation effect between international crude oil price and the competitiveness of petroleum equipment manufacturing industry

基于2014年1月—2017年11月布伦特原油月平均价格和石油装备制造业的经济效益指标,利用数据包络分析(DEA)和向量自回归模型(VAR)分析国际原油价格和石油装备制造业竞争力的关联效应,结果表明:国际石油价格和中国石油装备制造业竞争力存在长期均衡关系,国际原油价格是中国石油装备制造业竞争力的格兰杰原因,表现为正向-负向-正向交替的关联变化,到第10月趋于平稳,持续时间比较长。为了降低国际油价波动对石油装备制造业的不利影响,从应用数字经济和优化产业结构等方面提出发展建议。

Based on the monthly average price of Brent crude oil from January 2014 to November 2017 and the economic efficiency index of petroleum equipment manufacturing industry,DEA model and VAR model are used to analyze the correlation effect between international crude oil price and the competitiveness of petroleum equipment manufacturing industry.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the international oil price and the competitiveness of China's oil equipment manufacturing industry,and the international crude oil price is the Granger cause of the competitiveness of China's oil equipment manufacturing industry,showing a positive-negative-positive alternation associated changes,the tenth cycle which is stable and has a long duration.In order to reduce the adverse impact of the fluctuation of international oil prices on the manufacturing of petroleum equipment,it gives the suggestions to apply digital economy and optimize the industrial structure.