中央调剂金制度对地区养老保障发展状况影响研究

Research on the Impact of Central Adjustment Fund System on the Development of Regional Old-age Security

以全国31个省市2000~2017年的面板数据为基础,假定当期存在养老金余缺调剂,观测政策实施影响,建立空间杜宾模型进行分析,回归后得出主要结论:养老金调剂对其他地区的养老金替代率存在正向空间溢出效应,微观层面对地方养老保障发展有改善作用;同时,对调剂金制度实施前后地方整体的养老保障发展指标进行因子和聚类分析后发现,调剂金制度的落实能够较为明显地改善地方养老保障发展状况。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2000 to 2017,this paper first assumes that there is a pension surplus adjustment in the current period,and then examines the impact of the policy implementation.The spatial Durbin model is established for analysis,and the main conclusions drawn after regression are as follows:There is a positive spatial spillover effect of pension adjustment on the replacement rate of pension in other areas,and there is an improvement in the development of local pension security at the micro level.Moreover,after factor and cluster analysis of the overall development indicators of local pension security before and after the implementation of the transfer pension system,it is found that the implementation of the transfer pension system can significantly improve the development of the local pension security.