经济政策不确定性与企业风险承担

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Risk-Taking

采用Baker et al.(2013)基于文本分析法构建的中国经济政策不确定性指数并结合我国上市企业的财务数据构建面板数据模型,研究经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担的影响。结果表明,经济政策不确定性的增加会显著降低企业风险承担水平。进一步研究发现,企业规模越小,成长性越差,经济政策不确定性增加对企业风险承担水平的负向影响越大;企业面临的投资机会越多,经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担的负向影响越大。上述结论意味着在供给侧结构性改革背景下,政府应保持宏观经济政策的连续性和平稳性,并提高政策的精准性,以适当增加企业风险承担水平,促进企业R&D投入和社会全要素生产率的提升。

This paper uses the economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al.(2013)to investigate how economic policy uncertainty influences corporate risk-taking.The results show that corporate risk-taking significantly decreases when economic policy uncertainty increases.Further research finds that this effect is more obvious when the corporate has smaller size and worse growth as well as when the coporate has more investment opportunities.These results indicate that against the background of the structural reform of the supply side,the government should maintain the continuity and stability of economic policies and improve the accuracy of policies so as to help enterprises enhance their risk-taking capabilities,further promote corporate R&D investment and improve the total factor productivity of the society.