中国自其他金砖国家进口贸易影响因素及潜力分析

The Study on the Influencing Factors and Potential of the Import Trade between China and other BRICS Countries

近年来,中国自其他四个金砖国家的进口贸易额不断增加,成为其他四个金砖国家最重要的进出口贸易伙伴,2018年中国自其他四个金砖国家进口贸易总额达到1 694.3亿美元,占当年进口总额的7.9%左右。中国自其他四个金砖国家进口结构呈现高度集中化趋势,主要进口产品是原材料和初级产品,且具有继续扩大的潜力。随着金砖国家的兴起以及"一带一路"倡议影响的深入,在进口贸易方面未来中国与其他四个金砖国家的关系将更加密切。探究中国自其他四个金砖国家进口贸易的影响因素及潜力,对新常态下推动我国经济发展具有重要现实意义。以其他四个金砖国家为样本,基于2006-2018年面板数据,利用扩展引力模型对中国自其他四个金砖国家进口贸易的影响因素及潜力进行研究发现,中国和其他金砖国家经济发展水平、金砖国家人口规模、是否加入亚洲太平洋经济合作组织对进口贸易有正向影响,地理距离及是否接壤对中国自其他金砖国家进口贸易有负向影响。同时,测算表明,中国自其他四个金砖国家的进口贸易整体均处于贸易过度状态,但仍然属于潜力开拓型进口贸易,且近年来各国显示出各自不同的贸易特点。因此,为推动中国自其他四个金砖国家的进口贸易,建议加强政府对话,重点发展进口贸易潜力大的国家;深化"一带一路"建设,搭建国际化进口合作平台;与其他四个金砖国家建立双边自由贸易协定,缩减贸易成本;加强现代物流贸易大通道建设,降低贸易成本;优化进口产品贸易结构,以进口促出口;构建大数据贸易服务平台,升级进口贸易方式。

In recent years,China’s import trade volume from other BRICS countries is rising;and China is becoming the most important import and export trading partner of others. In 2018,China’s total import trade from other BRICS countries reached US$169.43 billion,accounting for about 7.9% of the total import in 2018. China’s import structure from other BRICS countries is highly concentrated,mainly in raw materials and primary products,and has the potential to expand. With the rise of other BRICS countries and the deepening impact of BRI,China will have closer relations with them in terms of import trade in the future. Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore and study the influencing factors and trade potential of China’s import trade from other BRICS countries to promoting economic development under the new normal. The authors select the other BRICS countries as the samples,use 2006-2018 panel data and the extended gravity model to study the influencing factors and potentials of China’s imports from other BRICS countries. The results show that:the development level of China and other BRICS countries,the population of the BRICS,and whether China join the Asia Pacific economic cooperation organization has positive impact on China’s import trade;and geographic distance and if there is the common border has the negative impact. At the same time,it is estimated that China’s import trade from other BRICS countries is in the state of "excessive trade" as a whole,but it still belongs to "potential development" import trade,and each country shows its different trade characteristics in recent years. Finally,based on the current situation of trade and the analysis results,the authors put forward the following suggestions:strengthening dialog among governments,focusing on developing countries with large import trade potential,deepening the construction of the Belt and Road,promoting bilateral free trade agreements with other BRICS countries,optimizing the trade structure of imported products,building a big data trading service platform and upgrading the way of import trade.