多维数据驱动粮食供应链危害物风险综合评价

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Hazards in Grain Supply Chain Based on Multi-Dimensional Data

为科学合理评价重金属、真菌毒素、农药残留和微生物等危害物在粮食供应链各个环节中的综合风险,在分析全国26个省份粮食加工品抽检数据及其他多维度数据基础上,兼顾定量指标和定性指标优势,从统计特性、抽检特性和调研特性三种互补角度构建多维层次风险指标体系,实现大量异构数据向量化风险指标转变;继而应用关联规则挖掘各指标间内在关系,实现各指标权重分配,构建风险综合评价方法,实现多维数据驱动的粮食供应链危害物风险评价和优先程度排序。希望为监管部门制定有针对性的抽检策略、确立优先监管领域和分配风险监管资源提供科学依据。

In order to scientifically and reasonably evaluate the comprehensive risks of heavy metals, mycotoxins, pesticide residues and microorganisms in all aspects of the grain supply chain, based on the analysis of sampling data and other multi-dimensional data of processed grain products from 26 provinces,a large number of multi-dimensional data were transformed into quantitative risk indicators, taken into account the quantitative indicators and qualitative indicators. And multi-dimensional risk indicator system was constructed from three complementary perspectives: statistical characteristics, sampling characteristics and research characteristics. Then the association rules were applied to dig the internal relations among the indicators, realize the weight allocation of each index, construct a comprehensive risk assessment method, and realize the multi-dimensional data-driven grain supply chain hazard risk assessment and prioritization. It might provide a scientific basis for the regulatory authorities to develop targeted sampling strategies, establish priority regulatory areas and allocate risk management resources.