出租车空车率影响因素研究

Influencing Factors Analysis of Taxi Vacant Ratio

出租车是都市交通中必不可少的一部分。其空车率水平越发受到司机、乘客以及管理者的关注。全面理解空车率的影响因素对平衡出租车运行效率和乘客等待时间之间的矛盾至关重要。基于出租车运行全轨迹,旨在挖掘空车率的影响因素并量化空车率和影响因素之间的关系。为区分不同的空车率,先将空车率分为高、中、低3种水平。再分别分析空/重车行程,从寻/送客策略的角度提取出了5个可能的影响因素。最后,构建广义多水平定序Logit模型以识别显著影响因素。结果表明,这5个因素对出租车空车率影响显著,并且各因素对不同空车率水平的出现概率影响不同,为调整空车率水平和优化出租车运营管理提供了指导。

Taxis are essential means of transport in metropolitans.The taxi vacant ratio level has attracted increased attention from taxi drivers,passengers,and regulators.A comprehensive understanding of the various factors affecting the vacant ratio level is important for the balance between taxi operation efficiency and passenger waiting time.This paper is based on the whole trajectories of taxis,and attempts to find out factors affecting vacant ratio and quantifies the corresponding influences.To differentiate the taxi vacant ratios,the drivers are firstly classified into three vacant ratio levels.By analyzing the taxi vacant trips and occupied trips separately,five factors which may affect the vacant ratio level are extracted from the perspective of passenger searching and delivery strategies.Lastly,a generalized multi-level ordered Logit(GMOL) model is built to identify the significant factors.The results show that these five factors are significant in affecting the taxi vacant ratio,and each factor has different effect on the occurrence of different vacant ratio levels.Therefore,the results of this study consequently provide guidelines for adjusting the vacant ratio level and optimizing the operational management of taxis.