考虑决策环境与锚定心理的短生命周期产品订货行为研究

Analysis on the Ordering Behavior of Short Life Cycle Products with Decision Making Environment and Anchoring Psychology

针对报童模型内的决策者是同质理性人的假设提出质疑,采用计算机软件模拟实验平台,研究了被试者的平均订购量与决策环境、被试者的锚定心理的关系,分析第一次订货量对第二次订货的锚定效果以及采购成本、零售价格和需求量水平等不同决策环境参数对被试的订货量的影响。研究结果表明,被试订货行为是有限理性的,在部分情况下,第一次订货量会产生显著的锚定效果影响第二次订货,在亏损情况下被试的平均订货量高于盈利情况下被试的平均订货量。通过研究报童实验订货决策的有限理性行为规律,将有助于提高实际决策过程的准确性和适应性,减少决策失误以及因失误带来的收益损失。

The hypothesis that the decision maker in the newsboy model is a homogeneous rational person is questioned.The relationship between the average order quantity of the subjects and the decision environment and the anchoring psychology of the subjects was studied,and the influence of the first order quantity on the anchoring effect of the second order as well as the influence of different decision environment parameters such as purchase cost,retail price and demand level on the order quantity of the subjects was analyzed by using the computer software simulation experiment platform.The result shows that the ordering behavior of the subjects is limited and rational.In some cases,significant anchoring effect will be produced and the second order will be affected by the first order quantity.In the case of loss,the average order quantity of the subjects is higher than that in the case of profit.By studying the law of bounded rational behavior of news order decision making,the accuracy and adaptability of the actual decision-making process will be improved,and the mistakes in decision-making and the loss of income caused by mistakes will be reduced.