基于LMDI模型的湖南省土地利用碳排放影响因素研究

Study on Influencing Factors on Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Hunan Province Based on LMDI Model

依据土地利用碳排放测算方法,对湖南省2003-2016年土地利用碳排放进行了科学地计算,分析了土地利用的碳排放效应,并且通过LMDI因素分解法探讨了影响土地利用碳排放的因素。研究结果表明:2003-2016年,湖南省土地利用碳排放呈现逐年递增的演变趋势,净碳排放量从2579.24万t增加到7303.76万t;经济规模效应、人口规模效应和能源碳排放强度效应均是正效应因素,其中经济规模效应为首要贡献因素;能源强度效应和土地规模效应为负效应因素,整体来看抑制土地利用碳排放增加的作用小于促进的强度。

A scientific calculation has been made of the land-use carbon emissions in Hunan Province from 2003 to 2016 based on its calculation method,followed by an analysis of the carbon emission effects brought about by the land-use,with the influencing factors on land-use carbon emissions under discussion by adopting LMDI factor decomposition method.The results show that,from 2003 to 2016,the land-use carbon emissions in Hunan Province show an increasing trend year by year,with the net carbon emissions increasing from 25.7924 million tons to 73.0376 million tons.Positive effect factors include economic scale effect,population size effect and energy carbon emission intensity effect,among which the economic scale effect is the primary contributing factor,while energy intensity effect and land scale effect are negative effect factors.Overall,the effect of restraining the increase of land-use carbon emissions is less than the intensity of promotion.