基于财政可持续性视角的地方政府隐性债务治理研究

Research on the Governance of Local Government Implicit Debt from the Fiscal Sustainability Perspective

系统治理地方政府隐性债务,是维持地方财政可持续性和防范化解系统性金融风险的必然要求。文章对经济新常态以来我国地方财政收支可持续性及政府显性和隐性债务现状进行评估,运用财政非线性反应函数测算地方政府债务上限,研究表明:当前我国地方财政运行中存在"财政疲劳"现象,地方政府债务上限为191%,足够的债务空间确保了当前地方政府仍具有财政可持续性。债务风险主要取决于经济增长速度和实际债务利率,防范风险一定不能让经济增速过快下滑,同时要采取措施降低债务融资成本。最后,从财政可持续视角提出创新地方基础设施投融资模式、明晰政府职能与规范支出边界、构建差异化地方税体系、健全基层政府财力保障机制、加强政府投资绩效管理等隐性债务治理路径。

Systematic governance of the implicit debt of local government is an inevitable requirement to maintain local fiscal sustainability and to prevent and mitigate systemic financial risks.In evaluating the sustainability of local fiscal revenues and expenditures,as well as the status of government explicit and implicit debts since the new economic normal,this paper uses the non-linear financial response function to measure the ceiling of local government debt.The research results show that:there is indeed"financial fatigue"in the local financial operation of China;the local government debt ceiling is 191%;and sufficient debt space ensures that the current local government is still financially sustainable;the debt risk mainly depends on the economic growth rate and the actual debt interest rate.Therefore,the risk prevention must not allow the economic growth rate to decline too fast,and measures should be taken to reduce the debt financing cost.Finally,from the perspective of fiscal sustainability,the path of local government implicit debt governance is proposed,such as innovating local infrastructure investment and financing model,clarifying government functions and regulating expenditure boundaries,building a differentiated local tax system,improving the financial guarantee mechanism of local governments,strengthening government investment performance management,etc.