摘要
通过建立VAR模型,从利率以及货币供给量两个角度分析从2008-2017年货币政策对于房地产价格的影响,通过研究发现,货币供应量M2和长期贷款利率与房地产价格之间具有着持续均衡的协整联系,货币供给量M2与房地产价格呈正相关关系,长期贷款利率与房地产价格呈负相关关系,货币供应量M2对房地产价格影响的贡献程度大于长期贷款利率对房地产价格影响的贡献程度。针对实证分析结果,对于如何促进房地产健康发展提出了相关政策建议。
The paper analyzed the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices from 2008 to 2017 from the perspectives of interest rate and money supply by establishing a VAR model. It was found that there was a continuous relationship between money supply M2 and long-term loan interest rate and real estate price through research. Balanced cointegration, money supply M2 was positively correlated with real estate price, long-term loan interest rate was negatively correlated with real estate price, and the contribution of money supply M2 to real estate price was greater than the contribution of long-term loan interest rate to real estate price. Finally, this paper put forward relevant policy recommendations on how to promote the healthy development of real estate, according to the results of empirical analysis.
作者
华炎
张敏新
HUA Yan;ZHANG Min-xin(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)
出处
《中国林业经济》
2019年第6期114-117,共4页
China Forestry Economics
