我国经济增长方式变化特征及其成因——基于248个地级以上城市的实证分析

Change Characteristics and Causes of China’ Economic Growth Pattern:An Empirical Analysis Based on 248 Cities above Prefectural Level

将Hicks-Moorsteen TFP指数作为经济增长方式的度量指标,利用248个地级以上城市数据,从总体和城市组两个层面分析2000—2015年我国经济增长方式的变化特征,并通过对该指数进行四重分解,进一步探讨形成这些特征的原因。结果表明,技术进步指数的上升不足以抵消技术效率和规模效率指数的下行,致使我国经济增长方式呈现出恶化之势;技术进步、技术效率和组合效率指数的上行促成西部城市经济增长方式趋于改善,而东、中部城市经济增长方式因技术效率指数下降、叠加规模效率或组合效率指数减小,表现出低端化走向;技术进步和技术效率指数的明显上升,引致成渝城市群经济增长方式有显著改善,各分项指数均走低,导致珠三角城市群经济增长方式的恶化快于京津冀和长江中游城市群;技术进步和技术效率指数变化是我国城市经济增长方式趋同的主要推动因素;技术效率指数的空间正相关在我国城市经济增长方式的相互依赖中发挥了主导作用。

Taking Hicks-Moorsteen index as a measure of economic growth pattern,this paper analyzes the change characteristics of China′s economic growth pattern from 2000 to 2015 from overall and urban groups by using the data of 248 cities above the prefectural level,and then discusses causes of these characteristics through the quadrization of this index.The results show that the increase of technological progress index is not enough to offset the decline of technical efficiency and scale efficiency index,which leads to the depravation of China′s economic growth pattern.The upward trend of technical advance,technical efficiency and combined efficiency index makes the economic growth mode of western cities tend to improve,while the growth patterns of eastern and central cities tend to downscale due to the decline of technical efficiency index and the reduction of superposition scale efficiency or combined efficiency index.The obvious increase of technical progress and technical efficiency index leads to the significant improvement of economic growth pattern of Chengdu-Chongqing City Group,and all sub-indexes are lower,leading to the deterioration of economic growth pattern of Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration faster than that of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Middle Reaches Urban Agglomeration.Technological progress and technological efficiency index change are main driving factors for convergence of urban economic growth mode in China.The spatial positive correlation of technical efficiency index dominates the interdependence of urban economic growth patterns in China.