政府资助能有效激励创新吗?——基于创新系统视角下DSGE模型的分析

Can Government Subsidies Promote Innovation Effectively?An Analysis of DSGE Model Based on the Perspective of Innovation System

本文基于创新系统视角,将系统中活动的各个参与主体方纳入分析框架,构建了包含创新产出部门、总生产部门、家庭和政府的DSGE模型。利用实际数据实证分析了在政府创新资助冲击下,创新生态系统中技术创新产出、消费、投资的变化以及人才、资本等要素的流动情况。实证结果发现:(1)政府创新资助确实可以激励创新产出,但具有时滞性,激励效果需要在2~3年后才能达到峰值。政府创新资助对技术创新部门的研发投资有诱导作用,但对非创新一般部门的投资具有挤出效应,且从数量关系上看,挤出效应大于诱导作用,这会导致总产出暂时受到负向影响。(2)政府资助对创新产出的影响程度远远小于创新部门全要素生产率冲击的影响程度,同时,全要素生产率冲击引起的经济周期较短,约为10年。(3)在相同的政府创新资助冲击下,随着技术创新产值转化率上升,一般部门的社会投资受到的挤出效应越来越强。

This paper analyzes actors of innovation ecosystem in a DSGE model of innovation ecosystem from the perspective of innovation ecosystem. This paper constructs a DSGE model containing innovation product department,total product department,family and government. Using the actual empirical data,this paper analyzes changes of technology innovation output,consumption,investment and flows of talent,capital,other factors under the background of impact from government innovation subsidies. The empirical results show that government innovation subsidies can really increase innovation output. But it has time lag and its effect needs 2-3 years to make the maximum incentive effect. Government innovation subsidies can stimulate the R&D investment in the technology innovation department.But it has a crowding out effect on R&D investment in the non-innovation department. And the crowding out effect is greater than the induction,which will have temporarily negative influence on the total output. The influence of government innovation subsidies on innovation output is far less than influence of total factor productivity shocks from innovation department. The difference is more than 10 times.At the same time,the economic cycle caused by the total factor productivity shocks is short,about 10 years. Under the same impact of government innovation funding,with the increase of the conversion rate of technological innovation output,the crowding out effect of the social investment in the general sector is getting stronger and stronger.