能源相对价格变化对陕西能源消费结构的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Energy Relative Price Change on Energy Consumption Structure in Shaanxi Province

能源相对价格变化直接影响能源消费量,进而影响消费结构。本文借助弹性分析工具,运用超越对数成本函数模型,选取1996-2017年数据,从能源间替代的角度分析能源相对价格对陕西能源消费结构的影响,结论认为:煤炭与天然气石油之间是互为互补品的关系,同时煤炭与电力、电力与天然气和石油与天然气之间互为替代品,因此电力和石油相对于天然气价格的上升会带来天然气消费量的增长,煤炭相对于电力价格的上升会带来电力消费量的增加。能源之间的替代或互补性在长期基本没有发生转换,部分能源之间的替代或互补程度发生较大波动,其中电力与煤炭、天然气的替代程度在不断地增加。并根据以上结论对优化陕西能源消费结构提出了政策建议。

Changes in the relative price of energy will affect the energy consumption directly, thus affecting the consumption structure. With the aid of elastic analysis tools, using the data of 1996-2017,this paper analyzes the impact of relative energy prices on the energy consumption structure of Shaanxi Province from the perspective of energy substitution by using the model of transcendental logarithmic cost function. The conclusion is that coal and natural gas and oil are complementary to each other, while coal and electricity, electricity and natural gas and oil and natural gas are substitutes for each other. Therefore, an increase in the price of electricity and oil relative to natural gas will lead to an increase in the consumption of natural gas, while an increase in the price of coal relative to electricity will lead to an increase in the consumption of electricity. The substitution or complementarity between energy sources has basically not changed for a long time. The substitution or complementarity between some energy sources fluctuates greatly, with the substitution of electricity, coal and natural gas increasing continuously. According to the above conclusions, some policy suggestions are put forward to optimize the energy consumption structure in Shaanxi Province.