成都平原经济区土地可持续利用水平变化及驱动因素分析

Driving factors of sustainable level change for land use in Chengdu Plain Economic Zone

土地资源的可持续利用是区域可持续发展的基础,成都平原经济区土地不仅关乎经济区的经济社会与土地资源的协调发展,还影响着整个四川省甚至西南地区的协调可持续发展。文章借用主成分分析和灰色关联模型,对成都平原经济区(成都市除外)的土地可持续利用水平进行指数计算,同时探其驱动因素。结果表明,2006—2015年,成都平原经济区整体和各地级市的土地可持续利用水平各有不同,但整体趋势良好;主要的影响因素有:耕地数量和质量、对土地资源的保护力度、农林产品的收益、城乡居民的生活需求和人口的规模和增速等。各地级市之间的土地可持续利用水平差距将逐渐缩小,区域有望协调发展。

The sustainable use of land resources was the basis of regional sustainable development.The land in Chengdu Plain Economic Zone was not only related to the coordinated development of economic society and land resources in the economic zone,but also affected the coordinated and sustainable development of the whole Sichuan province and even southwest China.Using principal component analysis and grey correlation model,this paper calculated the index of sustainable land use level of Chengdu Plain Economic Zone(except Chengdu)and probed into its driving factors.The results showed that from 2006 to 2015,the sustainable land use level of Chengdu Plain Economic Zone or each prefecture-level city was different,but the overall trend was good.The main influencing factors were the quantity and quality of cultivated land,the protection of land resources,the income from agricultural and forestry products,the living demands of urban and rural residents and the size and growth rate of population.The gap in the level of sustainable land use between prefecture-level cities would gradually narrow and the regional development was expected to be coordinated.