基于三角模糊数AHP的厦门港引航风险评价

Pilotage risk evaluation of Xiamen Port based on triangular fuzzy number AHP

为对厦门港引航风险进行更有效的识别和评价,建立厦门港引航风险评价指标体系。采用德尔菲法确定各指标相对于评价等级的隶属度,根据三角模糊数的几何特征计算各指标的模糊权重,建立厦门港引航风险综合评价模型。通过实例验证该方法的可行性和有效性,初步解决现有风险评价方法中存在的单值评价导致结果偏差较大的问题,为厦门港引航风险分析与评价提供一种更科学合理的方法。

In order to identify and evaluate the pilotage risk of Xiamen Port more effectively,the pilotage risk evaluation index system of Xiamen Port is established.Delphi method is used to determine the membership degree of each index relative to the evaluation grades.The fuzzy weight of each index is calculated based on the geometric characteristics of triangular fuzzy numbers,and a comprehensive evaluation model for Xiamen Port pilotage risk is established.The feasibility and effectiveness of the method is verified by an example,and the problem of large deviation of results caused by single value evaluation in existing risk evaluation methods is solved,which provides a more scientific and reasonable method for the analysis and evaluation of pilotage risk in Xiamen Port.