变权云物元模型在船舶定线制后评估中的应用

Application of variable-weight cloud matter-element model in post-evaluation of ships’ routeing

针对后评估中出现的模糊性和随机性及以往船舶定线制实施效果评价中忽略较差指标的影响的问题,提出一种基于变权云物元分析理论的船舶定线制实施效果综合评估方法。引入变权理论,对用主客观综合赋权法得到的常权权重进行修正,避免较差指标的消极作用被优秀指标掩盖,突出较差指标对评估结果的影响;运用云物元分析理论,构建船舶定线制实施效果综合评估模型,该模型可同时给出评估结果和可信度。以老铁山水道船舶定线制后评估为例进行验证,并结合数据统计对比分析,验证本方法的有效性和可靠性。

Aiming at the fuzziness and randomness in the post-evaluation and the problem of ignoring the influence of poor indexes in the previous evaluation on the ships’routeing implementation effect,the method of comprehensive evaluation of the ships’routeing implementation effect based on the variable-weight cloud matter-element analysis theory is proposed.The variable-weight theory is introduced to correct the constant weights obtained by the subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method,which avoids negative effects of poor indexes being covered by the excellent indexes,and highlights the influence of poor indexes on the evaluation results.The cloud matter-element analysis theory is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation model for the ships’routeing implementation effect,and the model can give the evaluation result and the credibility at the same time.The post-evaluation of the ships’routeing of Laotieshan Waterway is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness and reliability of the method.