我国铁路货运量增长不对称性研究

A Research on the Asymmetric Growth of Rail Freight Volume in China

为提高铁路货运的市场竞争力,在阐述我国铁路货运及其竞争对手发展趋势的基础上,分析铁路货运量增长存在的不对称性,确定增长不对称性系数的计算方法,以和方差、残差标准差、确定系数、校正后的确定系数进行拟合精度比较,选择出精度最高的模型作为衡量铁路货运量不对称性曲线的模型,以历年铁路、公路货运量为例,研究确定铁路货运确实存在畸形不对称增长的现象,计算的不对称性系数为正数,而公路货运不存在不对称增长性,与计算公路货运不对称增长系数为负数相符,为促进铁路货运量发展提供研究依据。

To improve the market competitiveness of rail freight transportation, on the basis of elaborating the development trend of China’s rail freight transportation and its competitors, this paper analyzes the asymmetric growth of rail freight volume, determines the calculation method of the asymmetric growth coefficient, compares the fitting accuracy with variance, residual standard deviation, coefficient of determination and corrected coefficient of determination, and selects the model with the highest accuracy to improve and use it to measure the asymmetric curve of rail freight volume, taking the rail and road freight volume as an example. The research shows that there is indeed a phenomenon of abnormal asymmetric growth in rail freight transportation, and the calculated asymmetry coefficient is positive and prominent. There is no asymmetric growth of road freight, which is consistent with the calculation that the asymmetric growth coefficient of road freight is negative. The paper provides a theoretical basis for promoting the development of railway freight volume.