房价如何影响中国居民储蓄——地级市空间联动效应视角

How Does Housing Prices Affect Chinese Household Savings?——A Perspective of the Linkage Effect of Prefecture-level Cities

本文基于全国273个地级市的面板数据,采用空间计量经济学分析方法从全国层面以及地区层面考察了房价对居民储蓄的空间联动影响.研究发现:房价对居民储蓄的影响是一个与工资收入相互交织的空间联动过程.房价上涨不仅会通过替代效应降低居民储蓄率,而且会通过房奴效应提高居民储蓄率;工资变动不仅会直接影响到居民储蓄率,而且会通过住房商品的收入效应进一步对居民储蓄率产生影响.在空间联动作用下,目标城市房价和居民收入的变动不仅会通过直接效应对该地区居民储蓄产生影响,还将通过间接效应影响到邻近城市的居民储蓄;同时,邻近城市的房价与工资变动又会通过反馈效应影响到目标城市的居民储蓄.此外,房价、工资对居民储蓄的空间联动作用在我国东中西部之间存在明显的差异.

Based on the panel data of 273 prefecture-level cities in China,this paper examines the spatial linkage effect between housing prices and wages on household savings at the national and regional levels using the econometric method,the study found that the impact of housing prices on household savings is a space-linked process that is interacted with wage income.Rising house prices will not only reduce the household savings rate through substitution effect,but also will increase it through the mortgage slave effect.Wage changes will not only directly affect the household savings rate,but also afiect this rate through the income eflfect of housing commodities.Meanwhile,changes in housing prices and wages in neighboring cities will afiect the residents,savings in the target cities through the feedback effect.Besides,there is a significant diflference in the spatial linkage eflfect among the eastern,middle and western parts of China.