高等教育人才结构与产业需求相适性——基于湖南省2008～2017年结构偏离度实证分析

The Adaptability of Talent Structure and Industrial Demand in Higher Education

湖南省产业结构序列近十年来历经了由“第一产业,第二产业,第三产业”逐渐转向“第二产业,第三产业,第一产业”,再到“第三产业,第二产业,第一产业”的转变。产业结构的转变势必要求高等教育人才结构作出调整。从当前湖南省人才结构与产业需求偏离度来看,湖南省第一产业劳动力仍有剩余,第二产业仍有吸纳劳动力的能力,第三产业吸纳劳动力的能力逐步提升。从湖南省人才结构与行业需求的偏离情况来看,农林牧渔业劳动力仍有剩余,金融业吸纳劳动力的能力增长强劲,工业及房地产业吸纳劳动力的能力较强且比较稳定。研究表明,湖南省人才结构与行业需求之间并不均衡,总偏离度高达16.1。因此,湖南省应根据产业调整情况建立适应产业结构调整的人才预警机制;根据产业需求建立人才培养储蓄机制;加大力度发展第三产业;建立第一产业创新创业激励政策,吸引优秀人才带动第一产业的升级发展等。

This paper intends to explore the adaptability of talent structure and industrial demand in Hunan Province in the new era,and put forward targeted policy suggestions for the imbalance of talent structure and industrial demand.The industrial structure sequence of Hunan Province has gradually changed from"primary industry,secondary industry,tertiary industry"to"secondary industry,tertiary industry,primary industry",and then to"tertiary industry,secondary industry,primary industry".The transformation of industrial structure is bound to require the adjustment of talent structure of higher education.From the perspective of the deviation between the current talent structure and industrial demand in Hunan Province,there is still additional labor force in the primary industry,the ability to absorb labor force in the secondary industry,and the ability to absorb labor force in the tertiary industry.In view of that,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery has surplus of labor force;the ability of financial industry to absorb labor force is growing strongly;the ability of industry and real estate industry to absorb labor force is strong and stable.The total deviation between the talent structure and industry demand in Hunan Province is up to 16.1.In conclusion,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations to the situation of industrial adjustment by establishing the early warning mechanism for talents to adapt to the adjustment of industrial structure.In addition,it is essential to establish the mechanism for talents training and saving consistent with the industrial demand to increase efforts to develop the tertiary industry,and establish incentive policies for innovation and entrepreneurship in the primary industry to attract outstanding talents to drive and upgrade the development of the primary industry.